Tag Archives: Eastleigh

What makes an election system democratic?

How offended can you be before an election result is “not democratic”? Continue reading

UKIP Vote split

Nigel Farage stated today (BBC Today in Politics 1 March 2013)  in response to UKIP pushing the Tories into third place in the Eastleigh by-election (result):

The UKIP vote was split by the Tories

Daniel Hannan (Conservative MEP) blogging on the Daily Telegraph (The Eurosceptic Right wins more than half the vote, the Europhile Left gets in with less than a third) urged the Tories and UKIP to come to a pact.

Between them, the two Centre-Right parties secured 53 per cent; yet the Lib Dems got in with 32 per cent. This is worse than the SDP/Labour split of the early 1980s. It is more like the Conservative/Reform split in Canada in the 1990s, a split that gifted the Left vast parliamentary majorities on a minority of the vote for over a decade.

Imagine Eastleigh being replicated in 100 constituencies at the 2015 general election. Or in just 50. Yet again, the first-past-the-post system would see an essentially Eurosceptic electorate return an essentially Euro-integrationist House of Commons.

Oh dear, what to do? Continue reading

Eastleigh Cons

Oh what a pretty mess!

The Cons want to win the forthcoming Eastleigh By-election caused by the resignation of Chris Huhne (BBC News Website 4 February 2013 Chris Huhne quits as MP after guilty plea) but a number of obstacles stand in their way:

  • “Gay Marriage” is pissing off the Conservative grassroots and may cause conservative voters to stay at home – it may pay Clegg to get this election called early (if he can) whilst the issue is fresh in the blue rinse minds.
  • Nigel Farage stood for UKIP in Eastleigh in the 1994 by-election

On the other hand the Liberals may find that some of their voters (those sickened by some of the actions of this coalition) drift off to Labour or the Greens.  Will they also suffer from the claimed Conservative fury at the Lib Dems for voting against the “redrawing boundaries to help the conservatives” bill?

So will the by-election be a lottery?

Might Cameron be wishing that this election was to be run under AV?  What might happen? Continue reading